The Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards

The Screen Actors Guild awards mostly were no surprises apart from Ruby Dee taking Best Supporting Actress for her performance in American Gangster. In her long career this is her first Oscar nomination and now, with the best indicator of all behind her, it is possible Ruby could take the award next month. Other winners were Daniel Day-Lewis, Julie Christie and Javier Bardem who continued their success in the precursors and cemented their Oscar chances. No Country For Old Men won the overall cast award adding to its popularity in the critics and further giving it the chance to walk away with the Oscar.

Directors Guild of America (DGA) Awards

The DGA went for the Coen brothers for best directors which puts them in a very strong position for the Oscar. Only 6 times since 1949 has the Academy disagreed with the DGA so they are the clear front runners now.

Nomination Reactions

Not too many surprises on the whole with all the Oscarpred favourites getting nominations. Atonement and Michael Clayton received more nominations than I expected but that is where it will finish as No Country For Old Men and Their Will Be Blood will fight out the main categories.

The film who wins Best Picture usually has nominations in the Editing, Directing and Screenplay categories which discards Juno, Michael Clayton and Atonement. No Country For Old Men has impressed the critics so far this season and has the best chance of Oscar success.

Daniel Day-Lewis is the lock of the awards this year and it would be a major surprise if he wasn't successful. Julie Christie has also the winners feel about her having won the majority of the precursors. Marion Cottilard and Ellen Page are worthy contenders but may just fall short.

The Supporting Actor and Actress Oscars quite often go against the critic flow so I would expect either of the front runners Javier Bardem and Amy Ryan to lose out. If they do the most likely winners are Hal Holbrook and Cate Blanchett.

If the precusors are anything to go by the Coen brothers should end up with not only the Best Picture but also the Best Director Oscar as well. Paul Thomas Anderson and Julian Schnabel are the contenders but will have to have a very good campaign from here on to figure.

Ratatouille should take the Animation Oscar but with penguins figuring in the last two animated winners perhaps the Academy like these birds and so may go for Surf's Up! Unlikely though.

Sicko is the best bet at the moment for Best Documentary with Juno and No Country For Old Men in front in the Screenplay stakes.

Best bets at the moment are Daniel Day-Lewis (Actor), Julie Christie (Actress), Coen Brothers (Director), Ratatouille (Animation), No Country For Old Men (Adapted Screenplay) and Juno (Original Screenplay).

With a few big precursors still to go teh Oscarpred ratings are nearing the finish. Keep checking for the latest order and the eventual Oscarpred predictions.

Oscar Nominations

Best Picture

"Atonement" (Focus Features)

"Juno" (Fox Searchlight)
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)

"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)

Best Actor
George Clooney in "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood"
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah"
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men"
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton"

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie in "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose"
Laura Linney in "The Savages"
Ellen Page in "Juno"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster"
Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement"
Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton"

Best Animated Feature Film
"Persepolis" (Sony Pictures Classics)
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney)
"Surf's Up" (Sony Pictures Releasing)

Best Director
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" Julian Schnabel
"Juno" Jason Reitman
"Michael Clayton" Tony Gilroy
"No Country for Old Men" Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
"There Will Be Blood" Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Documentary
"No End in Sight" (Magnolia Pictures)
"Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience" (The Documentary Group)
"Sicko" (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company)
"Taxi to the Dark Side" (THINKFilm)
"War/Dance" (THINKFilm)

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement" Christopher Hampton
"Away from Her" Sarah Polley
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" Ronald Harwood
"No Country for Old Men" Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"There Will Be Blood" Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Original Screenpla
"Juno" Diablo Cody
"Lars and the Real Girl" Nancy Oliver
"Michael Clayton” Tony Gilroy
"Ratatouille" Brad Bird
"The Savages" Tamara Jenkins

Best Art Direction
"American Gangster" Art Direction: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
"Atonement" Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
"The Golden Compass" Art Direction: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
"There Will Be Blood" Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" Roger Deakins
"Atonement" Seamus McGarvey
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" Janusz Kaminski
"No Country for Old Men" Roger Deakins
"There Will Be Blood" Robert Elswit

Best Costume Design
"Across the Universe" Albert Wolsky
"Atonement" Jacqueline Durran
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" Alexandra Byrne
"La Vie en Rose" Marit Allen
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" Colleen Atwood

Best Documentary Short Subject
"Freeheld" Cynthia Wade and Vanessa Roth
"La Corona (The Crown)" Amanda Micheli and Isabel Vega
"Salim Baba" Tim Sternberg and Francisco Bello
"Sari's Mother" James Longley

Film Editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" Christopher Rouse
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" Juliette Welfling
"Into the Wild" Jay Cassidy
"No Country for Old Men" Roderick Jaynes
"There Will Be Blood" Dylan Tichenor

Best Foreign Language Film
"Beaufort" Israel
"The Counterfeiters" Austria
"Katyn" Poland
"Mongol" Kazakhstan
"12" Russia

Best Makeup
"La Vie en Rose" Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
"Norbit" Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" Ve Neill and Martin Samuel

Best Original Score
"Atonement" Dario Marianelli
"The Kite Runner" Alberto Iglesias
"Michael Clayton" James Newton Howard
"Ratatouille" Michael Giacchino
"3:10 to Yuma" Marco Beltrami

Best Original Song
"Falling Slowly" from "Once"
"Happy Working Song" from "Enchanted"
"Raise It Up" from "August Rush"
"So Close" from "Enchanted"
"That's How You Know" from "Enchanted"

Best Animated Short Film
"I Met the Walrus"
"Madame Tutli-Putli"
"Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)"
"My Love (Moya Lyubov)"
"Peter & the Wolf"

Best Live Action Short Film
"At Night"
"Il Supplente (The Substitute)"
"Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)"
"Tanghi Argentini"
"The Tonto Woman"

Sound Editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Transformers"

Best Sound Mixing
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"3:10 to Yuma"
"Transformers"

Best Visual Effects
"The Golden Compass"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
"Transformers"

BAFTA Predictions

BAFTA generally likes to award British stars where possible unless there is a clear leader in the field for an award. This year will probably be the same.

Best Film - Atonement is the standout selection. Starring BAFTA favourite James McAvoy and the English rose Kiera Knightley this Joe Wright directed film should pick up the award to add to its Golden Globe. Unfortunately I think that is where it will end as it may not even get an Oscar nomination.

Best Actor - Irish Daniel Day-Lewis is the favourite for the Oscar and is very likely to pick up the BAFTA as well.

Best Actress - Julie Christie again is in the same position as Daniel Day Lewis. Julie has already picked up numerous awards and that should help BAFTA make up their mind to give her her 2nd Actress BAFTA.

Best Supporting Actor - Although Tom Wilkinson would be many BAFTA voters choice I thing teh mind will rule the heart and Javier Bardem will take it.

Best Supporting Actress - No Amy Ryan!!! What are BAFTA thinking of. I suppose it is easier to give it to Cate Blanchett now that Amy isn't around.

Director - This is a close one between Joe Wright and the Coen Brothers but as BAFTA and teh Academy don't normally see eye to eye on this award I will have to plump for Wright.

Original Screenplay - Writing is one area where BAFTA has a good link to the Oscars and therefore Diablo Cody may sneak this for Juno.

Adapted Screenplay - Will Atonement lose this? I think with the major award likely to go Atonement's way this one will be more in the Oscar way and go for No Country for Old Men.

Animated Film - Can't see Ratatouille being beat anywhere even at the BAFTA's.

Bafta Announces Their Nominations

Film

American Gangster
Atonement
The Lives Of Others
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Director

Atonement - Joe Wright
The Bourne Unltimatum - Paul Greengrass
The Lives of Others - Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
No Country For Old Men - Joel & Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson

Leading Actor

George Clooney
Daniel Day-Lewis
James McAvoy
Viggo Mortensen
Ulrich Muhe

Leading Actress

Cate Blanchett
Julie Christie
Marion Cottilard
Kiera Knightley
Ellen Page

Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem
Paul Dano
Tommy Lee Jones
Philip Seymore Hoffman
Tom Wilkinson

Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett
Kelly McDonald
Samantha Morton
Saoirse Ronan
Tilda Swinton

Original Screenplay

American Gangster - Steven Zallian
Juno - Diablo Cody
The Lives of Others - Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
This Is England - Shane Meadows

Adapted Screenplay

Atonement - Christopher Hampton
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ronald Harwood
The Kite Runner - David Benioff
No Country For Old Men - Joel & Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson

Animated Film

Ratatouille
Shrek The Third
Simpsons The Movie

How the Golden Globes affect Oscar prediction

The Golden Globes, like the majority of precursor awards, are good at indicating the Oscar winner in certain categories but bad at others.

Where the Globes stand out are Best Director, Best Actor (Drama), Best Actress (Drama), Best Supporting Actress and Best Screenplay.

Best Director: This bodes well for Julian Schnabel who has been largely overlooked so far as Best Director with the Coen brothers taking the majority of awards. The Globes are outstanding at predicting this award and so we now have a real battle.

Best Actor (Drama): Daniel Day-Lewis was already pulling away on the Oscarpred charts and the winner of this Globe rarely fails to win in Oscarland.

Best Actress (Drama): Julie Christie is in a similar position to Daniel Day-Lewis. She has dominated the awards so far and with four of the last five winners here repeating at the Academy Awards she has every chance.

Best Supporting Actress: Three out of the last five years the winner here went on to win the Oscar so that goes well for Cate Blanchett. Amy Ryan though has been dominating proceedings and it looks like a race between these two now.

Best Screenplay: Which ever writer wins the Globe has gone on to win the Oscar three of the last four years. As No Country For Old Men has also won many other awards for the writing the Adapted Screenplay Oscar looks to be going their way.

Where the Globes struggle in predicting the winner are in the Best Picture, Best Actor (Musical/Comedy), Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) and Best Animated Feature Film.

Best Picture: Both the drama winner, Atonement, and the comedy/musical winner, Sweeney Todd, have done very well to beat off the opposition but are a long way off winning the Oscar. In the last five years the Globes have sent ten Best Pictures to the Academy only to win on two occasions. The buzz may be now that Atonement has a great chance but the stats don't lie.

Best Actor and Actress (Comedy/Musical): It is very rare one of these ends up with the Best Actor or Actress Oscar and so Johnny Depp and Marion Cottilard should enjoy their success now before they have to deal with failure.

Best Animated Feature Film: The Globes have only ever gave one award out before this year and that was for the Disney film Cars which lost to Happy Feet last year. Can they go one better this year? All indications are that Ratatouille is a lock and so the Globes may well be 1 from 2 after this year.

Golden Globes results

Best Picture Drama Winner: Atonement
Best Picture Musical/Comedy Winner: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Best Actress Drama Winner: Julie Christie, Away From Her
Best Actor Drama Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will be Blood
Best Actress Musical/Comedy Winner: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Best Actor Musical/Comedy Winner: Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Best Supporting Actress Winner: Cate Blanchett, I’m Not There
Best Supporting Actor Winner: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Best Animated Film Winner: Ratatouille
Best Foreign Language Film Winner: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Director: Winner: Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
Best Screenplay Winner: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Best Original Score Winner: Dario Marianelli, Atonement
Best Original Song Winner: 'Guaranteed' from Into The Wild